NIO (NYSE:NIO) is one of the hottest EV car companies in the world and a top 10 largest in the world (3rd largest in China). NIO stock made its debut on the New York Stock Exchange on September 12th, 2018, at $6.26 per share.
Within 3 years of trading, NIO stock hit an all-time high of $62.84 in February 2021 before plummeting 93.60% to today’s price of $4.02 per share.
While the share price run-up in early 2020 was purely a momentum push, NIO brand in the EV market was not tarnished. In fact, the car company is still seen as a premium EV player and one of the first companies to address range anxiety issues by creating battery swap technology as a supplement to charging.
24/7 Wall Street aims to provide readers with our assumptions about the stock’s prospects going forward, what growth we see in NIO stock for the next several years, and what our best estimates are for NIO’s stock price each year through 2030.
Key Points in this Article:
- NIO is the 3rd largest EV company in China
- NIO is the first EV to pioneer swappable battery packs.
- If you’re looking for a megatrend with massive potential, make sure to grab a complimentary copy of our “The Next NVIDIA” report. The report includes a complete industry map of AI investments that includes many small caps.
NIO Stock Early Stage Growth
The following is a table of NIO’s revenues, operating income, and share price for the first few years as a public company.
Here’s a table summarizing performance in share price, revenues, and profits (net income) from 2014 to 2018.
Share Price (End of Year) |
Revenues (CNY) | Operating Income | |
2018 | $5.39 | 4,951.2 | (9,595.6) |
2019 | $3.45 | 7,824.9 | (11,079.2) |
2020 | $40.00 | 16,257.9 | (4,607.6) |
2021 | $16.70 | 36,136.4 | (4,496.3) |
2022 | $7.87 | 49,268.6 | (15,640.7) |
2023 | $4.71 | 55,617.9 | (22,655.2) |
Revenue and operating income in Billion CNY (1CNY=.14 USD)
Now let’s take a look at Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) the first few years it was a publicly traded company (here is Rivian’s stock price forecast):
Share Price (End of Year) |
Revenues | Operating Income | |
2021 | $50.24 | $55.0 | ($4,220.0) |
2022 | $19.30 | $1,658.0 | ($6,856.0) |
2023 | $10.70 | $4,434.0 | ($5,739.0) |
TTM | $15.35 | $4,997.0 | (5,790.0) |
The revenue growth for both firms is similar but Rivian’s operating loss is more than double the yearly operating loss of NIO.
NIO contracts its manufacturing to Jianghuai Automobile Group and pays a fee for each vehicle produced in addition to fixed cost. This agreement is beneficial for a young start-up in a very capital-intensive market. However, when scale is reached, the variable cost model has its downsides.
3 Key Drivers of NIO’s Stock Performance
- Product Portfolio Expansion and Growing Market Share
- New Model Launches: Similar to Tesla, NIO started off with a higher-end roadster and uses the higher-end models to re-invest into more affordable, mass-market vehicles. NIO aims to push further into price-conscious markets while also adding options for its more premium customers.
- Add-On Services: With NIO’s battery swap technology, the company plans to roll out an innovative battery-as-a-service solution for its customer base. The company plans on building over 4,000 swap stations worldwide by the end of 2025.
- Increased Vehicle Deliveries and Market Penetration
- Growing NEV Adoption: The market for new market vehicles (NEVs) is on the rise in China. NIO expects vehicle deliveries in 2025 to double the output from 2023 (roughly 165,000 units). This still only makes up about 2% of the Chinese NEV market and gives NIO plenty of roadway to grab market share for years to come.
- International Expansion: NIO’s strategy includes expanding its market presence outside China. The company built its first overseas battery-swap station in Hungary in 2022 and has several service centers and NIO accessory businesses throughout Europe.
- Advancements in Technology and Customer Experience
- Battery and Charging Solutions: NIO’s advancements in battery technology and charging solutions aim to alleviate range anxiety among consumers and help lower the overall cost of the vehicle by 15% to 30%.
- Focus on Younger Consumers: NIO’s leadership in EV technology will provide brand equity to younger generations of drivers who value enhanced technology packages.
NIO Stock Forecast Through 2030
Year | Revenue | Shares Outstanding | P/S Est. |
2025 | 97,052 | 2,050 mm | 1x |
2026 | 114,172 | 2,050 mm | 1x |
2027 | 134,643 | 2,050 mm | 1.5x |
2028 | 257,634 | 2,050 mm | 1.5x |
2029 | 176,533 | 2,050 mm | 1.5x |
2030 | 189,548 | 2,050 mm | 2x |
Revenue in CYN millions
Compared to Rivian and Tesla, NIOs price to sales valuation will be moderately discounted. While NIO is in solid financial standing and has a premium brand image, it’s still uncertain how much competition the company will face in China and expanding overseas. The company is already spending a quarter of revenues on R&D and if NIO can’t capitalize on this spend, the stock price will be sluggish compared to North American EV manufacturers.
NIO Share Price Estimates 2025-2030
How NIO’s Next 5 Years Could Play Out
Wall Street analysts have NIO’s stock price over the next year to be $6.94 which gives the stock a 72.64% upside over today’s price of $4.02. Of the 26 analysts covering the stock, the consensus recommendation is a 2.07 ‘Outperform’ Score.
We expect to see revenue growth of 60% for 2025, with a price-to-sales multiple of 1x, which puts our price target at $6.63, an upside of 64.93%.
Going into 2026, we estimate the price to be $7.80, with another strong 50%+ revenue bump. However, with EBITDA still well in the negative, we see the market not rewarding the stock as much and giving it a lower valuation multiple, resulting in an upside of 94.03%.
Heading into 2027, we expect the stock price increase to leap forward to $13.80 with another strong 50%+ revenue growth year-over-year. That is a 97% year-over-year gain and up 243.28% from today’s stock price.
When predicting more than 3 years out, we expect NIO’s P/S ratio in 2028 to be 1.5x and top-line growth of 50%. In 2028, we have NIO’s revenue coming in around $36 billion, suggesting a stock price estimate at $26.39 or a gain of 556.47% over the current stock price.
24/7 Wall Street expects NIO’s stock to continue its revenue growth and to generate $25 billion in revenue. The stock price in 2029 is estimated at $18.08, or a gain of 349.75% over today’s price.
NIO Stocks Price Target for 2030
We estimate NIO’s stock price to be $25.89 per share. Our estimated stock price will be 544.03% higher than the current stock price.
Year | Price Target | % Change From Current Price |
2024 | $6.94 | Upside of 72.64% |
2025 | $6.63 | Upside of 64.93% |
2026 | $7.80 | Upside of 94.03% |
2027 | $13.80 | Upside of 243.28% |
2028 | $26.39 | Upside of 556.47% |
2029 | $18.08 | Upside of 349.75% |
2030 | $25.89 | Upside of 544.03% |
Recent NIO Stock Updates and news
8/22/2024
NIO has announced that the company will release its financial results for the second quarter on September 5th. The report will be issued before the U.S. stock market opens.
8/21/2024
Yesterday, NIO announced a major expansion plan to install battery charging stations and swapping stations all across China. By the end of June 2025, there will be NIO stations in all of China’s 2,844 counties. The company reported that other car brands can also use its charging stations, making it a more accessible option for EV drivers in general.
8/20/2024
NIO is hosting its Power UP event today. The company will showcase new technologies and share its plans for improving battery charging and swapping technology.
8/19/2024
NIO is changing the name of its upcoming annual event to “Power UP”. Power UP will take place on August 20th in Central China’s Wuhan, Hebi province. NIO plants to share its newest ideas, technologies, and products during the event.
8/16/2024
NIO’s stock price increased by 2.96% on Thursday, closing at $3.83 per share. This came on a strong day for the overall stock market, with both the Nasdaq and Dow Jones indexes rising significantly.
8/15/2024
Production on the Onvo L60 has begun at NIO’s factory in Hefei, China. This new electric crossover SUV is part of the company’s sub-brand (Onvo) and is designed to be a mid-priced vehicle. The Onvo L60 will be ready for delivery starting at the end of September.
8/14/2024
While NIO recently gained attention for its battery-swapping program, Zeekr, another Chinese EV company, is making headlines by dramatically reducing charging times. The company claims its latest batteries can charge from 10% to 80% capacity in just 10.5 minutes using its special charging stations. These developments underscore the intense competition within the Chinese EV market, where companies like NIO and Zeekr are challenging industry leaders like Tesla and BYD with their innovative EV vehicles and charging solutions.
8/12/2024
NIO’s stock price has declined significantly this year, performing quite poorly compared to its Chinese competitors. However, the company’s fortunes may be turning around. While NIO battery swap service took four years to reach 10 million swaps, it doubled that number in just nine months. By October 2023, the company had completed 20 million swaps, and this figure has now surpassed 50 million less than ten months later. This growth highlights a strong consumer preference for battery swaps over traditional charging, giving NIO a significant market advantage.
8/9/2024
NIO is preparing for its upcoming NIO Day, which will take place in Guangzhou, Guangdong province. While there is little information on what to expect thus far, historically NIO has unveiled new technologies and EV models, such as the ET9 sedan on NIO Day 2023.
8/8/2024
NIO is set to unveil the first model of its new sub-brand, Onvo, on September 19th in Hefei, Anhui Province. Vehicle deliveries are scheduled to begin a week following the event. Despite this upcoming launch, NIO’s stock price continued its decline yesterday, dropping 2.65% to close at $3.67 per share. This downturn is attributed to the current instability of the stock market overall and investors’ growing impatience for results.
8/7/2024
NIO’s battery swap technology is proving to be a hit with consumers. The company recently celebrated swapping its 50 millionth battery, showing that the process is not only practical but also popular among its consumers.
8/6/2024
NIO has faced significant challenges recently, but analysts are optimistic about the company’s stock in the future. Despite production hurdles caused by major changes implemented last year, NIO has managed to increase car sales in recent months, surpassing original expectations. Moreover, the company’s introduction of a new SUV to compete with popular models like the Telsa Model Y is expected to further boost its performance.
8/5/2024
NIO is trading lower today following news that the U.S. government may prohibit the use of software from Chinese companies in connected and autonomous vehicles. This could also mean that Chinese companies won’t be allowed to test self-driving cars in the U.S. The news has caused stocks in NIO, Xpeng, and Li Auto to decline.
8/2/2024
The stock price for NIO took a dive yesterday after the company released its July sales figures. NIO delivered approximately 20,500 EVs for the third month in a row, but investors were disappointed that sales only increased by around 2% compared to the same time last year. As a result, NIO’s stock price dipped 8.3%.
8/1/2024
NIO has faced challenges due to China’s struggling economy, but investors are hopeful that the new government stimulus will boost demand for EV cars. In addition, the company recently unveiled its second-generation smartphone, which is designed to improve the overall driving experience for NIO car owners.
7/31/2024
All eyes will be on NIO when they report earnings on September 3rd. After Ford’s update on sluggish EV sales and exploding costs, it will be imperative for investors to watch sales figures for the last quarter and how well management has limited cost overages.
7/30/2024
NIO recently shared several of its recent technological breakthroughs. The company has invested heavily in developing its own technology, rather than relying on other sources, with the aim to make cars uniquely different from its competitors. This includes a new vehicle operating system, the world’s first five-nanometer chip for automated driving, and a smart assistant that utilizes the company’s impressive language model.
7/29/2024
NIO’s new model, the Onvo L60, will hit the market in Late September. The company is trying to take some of the market from Tesla’s Model Y with this new, more affordable car. Many aspects of NIO’s new car remain unknown, but will presumably be revealed at its launch event.
7/26/2024
NIO recently increased due to China’s recent expansion of approximately 300 billion yuan ($41.5 billion) to its stimulus program. The company’s earnings report is estimated to be announced on September 3rd.
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