Everyone knows Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and its best-known products, including the Windows operating system and Microsoft 365 suite of productivity apps, but its growing cloud computing platform, Azure, is the future of the company.
Microsoft stock has been a millionaire maker for decades, with a stock split adjusted IPO price of $0.14, which means at today’s stock price of $406.70, the stock is up 417885.61%. That would have turned a $1000 investment at Microsoft’s IPO into $4.18 million today.
As one of the most valuable companies in the world, the only thing investors focus on is what the stock will do over the coming years. Wall Street analysts only go as far as 1 year out when giving a stock prediction. But long-term investors want to know where Microsoft might be several years down the road.
24/7 Wall Street aims to give you our assumptions on the stock and provide our insights around the numbers coming from Microsoft and which markets the company is operating in that are most exciting to us.
Key Points in this Article:
- Key growth drivers: Azure cloud services, productivity software, and LinkedIn dominate Microsoft’s future potential.
- Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision boosts its gaming segment, enhancing its competitive edge in the personal computing market.
- If you’re looking for an AI stock early in the AI growth cycle, grab a complimentary copy of our “The Next NVIDIA” report. It has a software stock that could ride dominance in AI to returns of 10X or more.
Microsoft’s 10-Year Market Smashing Results
Here’s a table summarizing performance in share price, revenues, and profits (net income) from 2014 to 2018.
| Share Price | Revenues | Net Income | |
| 2014 | $46.16 | $86.83 | $22.07 |
| 2015 | $46.70 | $93.58 | $12.19 |
| 2016 | $56.21 | $91.15 | $20.54 |
| 2017 | $72.26 | $96.57 | $25.49 |
| 2018 | $108.04 | $110.36 | $16.57 |
| 2019 | $138.06 | $125.84 | $39.24 |
| 2020 | $205.01 | $143.02 | $44.28 |
| 2021 | $286.50 | $168.09 | $61.27 |
| 2022 | $276.41 | $198.27 | $72.74 |
| 2023 | $330.72 | $211.92 | $72.36 |
| TTM | $465.39 | $279.99 | $86.18 |
Revenue and net income in $billions
In the last decade, Microsoft’s revenue grew 222% while its net income went from $22.07 billion to over $86 billion (in the trailing 12 months). A big driver of profits over the past decade was Microsoft’s Intelligence cloud business, which grew 18% annually and drove operating profits of $37.88 billion in 2023 from $8.44 billion in 2014.
As Microsoft looks to the second of the decade, a few key areas will determine its performance.
Key Drivers of Microsoft’s Stock Performance
- Productivity and Business Processes: Microsoft’s Office and Dynamics 365 solutions and its LinkedIn products currently make up around one-third of the company’s revenue. Office in particular holds a near monopoly in office productivity software and most 3rd party applications have embeds, making switching costs high for this business line. LinkedIn also does not have a solid competitor in the professional networking space. High growth rates in this segment, but Microsoft has the advantage of controlling its price on its high market share products.
- Intelligence Cloud: Microsoft’s Azure, OpenAI, GitHub, SQL among other cloud businesses make up close to half of the company’s revenue. But the crown jewel is Azure which only makes up close to 30% of Microsoft’s revenue and grew 30% over the past year alone. The future of Microsoft will depend on Azure and its competition with Amazon’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) AWS will determine which company will dominate the Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) and reward shareholders handsomely in the process.
- Personal Computing: Windows, gaming, search and devices is currently 25% of Microsoft’s business and this segment is the most open to competitors eroding market share. Outside of Windows, which has a solidified market share (and not likely to dwindle), Microsoft search and devices will be facing a steep uphill battle over the coming years. Its acquisition of Activision is a positive for its gaming line but personal computing will play an ancillary part in Microsoft’s future.
Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Price Prediction in 2025
The current consensus 1-year price target for Microsoft stock is $480.90, which is an 18.24% upside from today’s stock price of $406.70. Of all the analysts covering Microsoft, the stock is a consensus buy, with a 1.33 “Buy” rating.
24/7 Wall Street’s 12-month forecast projects Microsoft’s stock price to be $495. We see Azure continuing its 20+% growth and earnings per share coming in right at $11.80.
Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Forecast Through 2030
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
| 2024 | $244.97 | $88.93 | $13.32 |
| 2025 | $278.00 | $99.25 | $15.67 |
| 2026 | $321.63 | $115.65 | $18.10 |
| 2027 | $370.79 | $136.81 | $20.40 |
| 2028 | $416.08 | $151.87 | $22.62 |
| 2029 | $453.39 | $166.56 | $25.45 |
| 2030 | $503.13 | $181.71 | $28.70 |
Revenue and net income in $billions
Microsoft Share Price Estimates 2025-2030
Price Forecast and Prediction for 2025: We expect to see revenue growth of just over 8% and EPS of $15.67 for the year. We expect the stock to still trade at a similar multiple next year, putting our estimate for the stock price for Microsoft at $548.00 in 2025, which is 34.74% higher than the stock is trading today.
Price Forecast and Prediction for 2026: We estimate the price to be $633.00, with small revenue gains but margins expanding and an EPS of $18.10. We expect to see Microsoft’s P/E ratio steep down slowly each year through 2030. The stock price estimate would represent a 55.64% gain over today’s share price of 406.70.
Price Forecast and Prediction for 2027: We expect the stock price increase not to be as pronounced and earnings estimates of $20.40 per share, the stock price target for the year is $652.00. That is a 3% year-over-year gain from the previous year, but still up 60.31% from today’s stock price.
Price Forecast and Prediction for 2028: We expect Microsoft’s P/E ratio to drop to 30x in 2028 but grow its top line by 14%. In 2028, we have Microsoft’s revenue coming in around $420 billion and an EPS of $22.62 suggesting a stock price estimate at $678.00 or a gain of 66.71% over the current stock price.
Price Forecast and Prediction for 2029:24/7 Wall Street expects Microsoft to continue its 10% revenue growth again and to generate $12.30 per share of earnings. With a price to earnings multiple of 35, the stock price in 2029 is estimated at $687.00, or a gain of 68.92% over today’s price.
Price Forecast and Prediction for 2030: We estimate Microsoft’s stock price to be $717.00 per share with a sub 10% year-over-year revenue growth. Our estimated stock price will be 76.30% higher than the current stock price of 406.70.
| Year | Price Target | % Change From Current Price |
| 2024 | $495.00 | Upside of 21.71% |
| 2025 | $548.00 | Upside of 33.74% |
| 2026 | $633.00 | Upside of 55.64% |
| 2027 | $652.00 | Upside of 60.31% |
| 2028 | $678.00 | Upside of 66.71% |
| 2029 | $687.00 | Upside of 68.92% |
| 2030 | $717.00 | Upside of 76.30% |
Recent Microsoft Stock Updates and News
8/12/2024
Microsoft announced today that its artificial intelligence model has received a high level of security clearance (FedRAMP High). The Azure OpenAI Service, including the advanced GPT-4 model, will thus be made available for use with some of the U.S. government’s most sensitive data.
8/9/2024
Palantir has partnered with Microsoft, a significant development in the realm of defense and intelligence technology. By combining Microsoft’s cloud infrastructure and AI capabilities with Palantir’s data analytics platform, the two tech giants aim to provide a powerful suite of tools for the U.S. government.
8/8/2024
Microsoft and Palantir Technologies (NYSE: PLTR) announced they’re teaming up to sell specialized computer programs to the U.S. government. These products and services utilize artificial intelligence to analyze large chunks of data to aid military and intelligence agencies.
8/7/2024
Microsoft and Crowdstrike are pushing back against allegations made by Delta Airlines. Delta blames the two companies for a massive technology outage last month that caused thousands of flights to be canceled. The airline claims that the outage, triggered by a faulty CrowdStrike upgrade on Microsoft Windows systems, cost the company %500 million. However, Microsoft denies these claims and is investigating why other airlines recovered much faster than Delta.
8/6/2024
Microsoft, together with Amazon and Google Cloud, dominates the cloud computing market, holding a two-thirds share. While Azure is experiencing rapid growth, it is also struggling to meet the surging demand for AI. However, Microsoft leadership has indicated that this issue will be resolved soon, accelerating Azure’s growth in the second half of the year. Despite recent challenges and a disappointing quarterly earnings report, the company is poised for significant success in the coming months.
8/5/2024
Microsoft continues to fluctuate since its earnings report last week. However, despite its current volatility, experts predict a decrease in the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks to just three main competitors: Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple. These three tech giants, each worth trillions of dollars each, are leading the way in AI technology. Microsoft’s strategic investments in cloud computing and AI are anticipated to increase its long-term earnings.
8/2/2024
Microsoft has been targeting early-stage startups by offering substantial Azure cloud credits to Y Combinator companies, providing access to powerful computing resources crucial for developing AI applications. Over half of Y Combinator startups have accepted this offer, contributing to Azure’s impressive 29% revenue growth, far outpacing Amazon’s AWS for now.
8/1/2024
While Microsoft’s most recent quarterly financial results weren’t disappointing, they weren’t strong enough to prevent a 3$ drop in stock price before the market opened Wednesday as investors sold off shares following the announcement.
Microsoft has invested heavily in its Azure cloud service, but its growth rate has slowed compared to investor expectations. This has caused some concern among investors regarding the company’s future performance. However, prices of three of the original “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks — Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft — also increased after today’s stock market opened.
7/31/2024
Following the market close yesterday, Microsoft announced that its revenue for the quarter ending June 30, 2024, reached $64.7 billion, a 15% increase compared to the same period last year. Operating income climbed 15% to $27.9 billion, while net income rose 10% to $22 billion. Diluted earnings per share increased 10% to $2.95 for the quarter.
7/30/2024
Microsoft will announce its quarterly earnings today after market close. Analysts predict the company will report increased profits and higher sales compared to the same period last year. Investors are particularly interested in the performance of Microsoft’s cloud service, Azure, and the company’s progress and plans for artificial intelligence.
7/29/2024
Microsoft is set to announce its quarterly earnings this Tuesday. Despite increasing AI expenditures, which have exceeded the comfort levels of investors across many companies, experts predict continued growth for Microsoft’s stock driven by its cloud business, Azure. Share prices have already doubled in the past five years, with a more than 20% increase in the last year alone.
7/26/2024
Microsoft stock is up 2.5% today and continues to climb out of the cellar it was dropped into on Wednesday when the stock dropped 4%. In fact, “Magnificent 7” stocks are recovering after a wide rotational sell-off hit each stock early this month.
With more large tech stocks on the verge of releasing earnings, investors are hesitant to stay away and miss out on earnings beats and share price appreciation. Microsoft will release earnings this coming Tuesday. (edited)
7/25/2024
Although the recent IT outage related to an update from Crowdstrike was resolved quickly, Microsoft Stock is experiencing some volatility, including a -4% drop in shares yesterday.
7/24/2024
Under 1 week until Microsoft’s 2nd quarter earnings release. Microsoft is set to report Q4 earnings on July 30, with expected revenue of $64.38 billion, a 14.6% increase, and net income of $21.88 billion. Key focus areas include Azure’s growth, driven by AI workloads, with Goldman Sachs estimating cloud revenue at $37.2 billion.
7/23/2024
Piper Sandler analysts reaffirmed an Overweight rating on Microsoft, forecasting Microsoft Cloud revenue to hit $200 billion by 2026, driven by increased capex. They raised the MSFT stock price target to $485. Microsoft’s next quarterly earnings call is July 30th.
7/22/2024
A global cyber outage on Friday disrupted air travel and payments, delaying 36,000 flights and canceling 4,000. A CrowdStrike software update caused issues for millions of Microsoft Windows devices. A fix was deployed, but CrowdStrike’s stock fell.
7/17/2024
Microsoft is up 30% over the past year and the question on investors’ minds is, “Is it too late to buy Microsoft”? Early investment in OpenAI boosted shares by 89% in 2023. Despite impressive gains, Microsoft continues to expand in AI and cloud computing, suggesting further growth potential. Its diverse portfolio and strong earnings make it a solid long-term investment. The new face of Microsoft suggests it’s still early in the AI growth cycle.
7/12/2024
DMO Capital analyst Keith Bachman, who has Microsoft as an “Outperform” stock, raised the 1-year price target for the stock to $500, up from $465. Bachman is impressed with Microsoft’s cloud demand and projects a 31% year-over-year Azure growth for the current quarter and sees upside potential over that estimate.
7/11/2024
Microsoft’s stock, up 95% since early last year, is poised for further growth due to its AI advancements. The company aims for mid-teens revenue growth, potentially reaching $371 billion by 2027. With a five-year average price-to-sales multiple of 11, Microsoft’s market cap could hit $4 trillion, driven by expanding AI applications in cloud computing, workplace productivity, and PC markets.
7/10/2024
Both Microsoft and Apple have withdrawn their observer seat to OpenAI’s board to steer clear of regulatory scrutiny and will instead meet with OpenAI in less formal, regularly scheduled meetings.
Microsoft has invested $13 billion in OpenAI in addition to providing computing power and cloud storage.
7/9/2024
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has once again moved ahead of Microsoft as the most valuable company in the world. While the top rankings will continue to shift on daily price movements, Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA continue to vie for the top spot.
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