Russia vs. NATO, One Holds Far More Rocket Artillery

Throughout May and June 2024, 70,000 Russian service members were likely killed or wounded in action. Many political commentators attribute this to Russia’s ongoing military front in Kharkiv, the second-largest Ukrainian city. Russia’s attempts to overtake Kharkiv highlight the country’s military strategy. Since Kharkiv is near the Ukraine-Russia border, taking Kharkiv would disrupt supply lines, position Russia defensively, and control economic and industrial assets. These moves are heavily contested by countries belonging to the NATO military alliance. If conflict were to occur, Russia and NATO would need to highly consider the military capabilities at play.

NATO began in 1949 to deter Soviet expansion in Europe. Initially founded by 12 countries, NATO has since expanded to 32 members. Finland and Sweden, the two newest NATO members, joined the alliance in a direct response to the war in Ukraine, abandoning a long-standing policy of military neutrality. (Check out the 195 countries with military neutrality or no military, and who has to defend them.)

Under Article 5 of NATO’s treaty, attacking one ally is viewed as an attack on all allies. Ukraine does not currently hold NATO membership, though the country is expected to join in the future. However, the ongoing war presents conflicts for member states. Nine NATO members currently share a border with either Ukraine, Russia, or both. An all-out war between Russia and NATO may be unavoidable if Putin pursues territorial expansion.

Using data from Global Firepower’s 2024 report on international military capabilities, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed how NATO’s military strength compares to Russia’s military strength. If a conflict arose, individual NATO members could likely not commit all military assets to the war effort. Global Firepower therefore assumed a minimum 25% contribution from each NATO ally for each category listed in this story, from active-duty troops and reserve forces to weapons and material. Similarly, Global Firepower assumed only 75% of Russian military assets to be available and operational. For context, we also included Global Firepower’s estimates of American military power and assets.

In most of the 27 categories of weapons, material, and other resources relevant to waging war on this list, NATO has the upper hand over Russia. Still, with twice the number of dedicated attack aircraft as NATO, three times the number of tanks, and nearly seven times the inventory of rocket artillery pieces, Russia has advantages in some key areas. However, if war did break out, many NATO allies would likely contribute far more weapons, money, and manpower than Global Firepower believed. The U.S. defense budget alone is more than 10 times that of Russia. Of the 27 categories of key military assets on this list, the U.S. has an advantage over Russia in all but seven. In many of those areas, additional contributions from other NATO allies would go a long way toward closing the gap. (See how the U.S. defense budget has skyrocketed over the years.)

Why It Matters

The ongoing war in Ukraine is the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II. While NATO has been supplying aid in the form of weapons and money to the Ukrainian effort, no NATO ally has engaged directly in combat…so far. Should the war spill across the border of a NATO country, all NATO allies will be obligated under the principle of collective defense to take up arms against Russia. Understanding how Russia and NATO allies are positioned provides a deeper look into how a potential war might go, and whose defense spending supports stronger military output.

Let’s look at where NATO’s military capabilities stand compared to Russia. 

1. Oil production

• Russia’s projected capacity: 10.8 million barrels-per-day
• NATO’s projected capacity: 6.8 million barrels-per-day
• United States’ projected capacity: 18.0 million barrels-per-day

2. Combined budget

• Russia’s projected capacity: $82.6 billion
• NATO’s projected capacity: $235.5 billion
• United States’ projected capacity: $831.8 billion

3. Labor Force

• Russia’s projected capacity: 52,500,000 personnel
• NATO’s projected capacity: 103,333,500 personnel
• United States’ projected capacity: 164,797,000 personnel

4. Mine Warfare Vessels

• Russia’s projected capacity: 37 hulls
• NATO’s projected capacity: 45 hulls
• United States’ projected capacity: 8 hulls

5. Submarines

• Russia’s projected capacity: 53 hulls
• NATO’s projected capacity: 37 hulls
• United States’ projected capacity: 64 hulls

6. Corvettes

• Russia’s projected capacity: 65 hulls
• NATO’s projected capacity: 16 hulls
• United States’ projected capacity: 23 hulls

7. Frigates

• Russia’s projected capacity: 8 hulls
• NATO’s projected capacity: 34 hulls
• United States’ projected capacity: None

8. Naval Destroyers

• Russia’s projected capacity: 11 hulls
• NATO’s projected capacity: 28 hulls
• United States’ projected capacity: 75 hulls

9. Helicopter Carriers

• Russia’s projected capacity: None
• NATO’s projected capacity: 3 hulls
• United States’ projected capacity: 9 hulls

10. Aircraft Carriers

• Russia’s projected capacity: 1 hull
• NATO’s projected capacity: 4 hulls
• United States’ projected capacity: 11 hulls

11. Total Naval Assets

• Russia’s projected capacity: 449 hulls
• NATO’s projected capacity: 687 hulls
• United States’ projected capacity: 472 hulls

12. Rocket Artillery

• Russia’s projected capacity: 2,915 pieces
• NATO’s projected capacity: 429 pieces
• United States’ projected capacity: 694 pieces

13. Towed Artillery

• Russia’s projected capacity: 3,252 pieces
• NATO’s projected capacity: 1,765 pieces
• United States’ projected capacity: 1,267 pieces

14. Self-propelled Guns

• Russia’s projected capacity: 4,931 vehicles
• NATO’s projected capacity: 1,158 vehicles
• United States’ projected capacity: 1,595 vehicles

15. Armored Fighting Vehicles

• Russia’s projected capacity: 113,731 units
• NATO’s projected capacity: 251,909 units
• United States’ projected capacity: 360,069 units

16. Tanks

• Russia’s projected capacity: 9,425 vehicles
• NATO’s projected capacity: 3,184 vehicles
• United States’ projected capacity: 4,657 vehicles

17. Attack Helicopters

• Russia’s projected capacity: 403 units
• NATO’s projected capacity: 360 units
• United States’ projected capacity: 1,000 units

18. Helicopters

• Russia’s projected capacity: 1,148 units
• NATO’s projected capacity: 2,172 units
• United States’ projected capacity: 5,737 units

19. Aerial Refueling Craft

• Russia’s projected capacity: 14 units
• NATO’s projected capacity: 155 units
• United States’ projected capacity: 606 units

20. Special-mission Aircraft

• Russia’s projected capacity: 110 units
• NATO’s projected capacity: 244 units
• United States’ projected capacity: 695 units

21. Fixed-wing Transporters

• Russia’s projected capacity: 333 units
• NATO’s projected capacity: 381 units
• United States’ projected capacity: 957 units

22. Dedicated Attack Aircraft

• Russia’s projected capacity: 558 units
• NATO’s projected capacity: 277 units
• United States’ projected capacity: 896 units

23. Fighter and Interceptor Aircraft

• Russia’s projected capacity: 580 units
• NATO’s projected capacity: 881 units
• United States’ projected capacity: 1,854 units

24. Total Airpower

• Russia’s projected capacity: 3,137 aircraft
• NATO’s projected capacity: 5,253 aircraft
• United States’ projected capacity: 13,209 aircraft

25. Reserve Manpower

• Russia’s projected capacity: 187,500 personnel
• NATO’s projected capacity: 649,150 personnel
• United States’ projected capacity: 799,500 personnel

26. Frontline Manpower

• Russia’s projected capacity: 623,175 personnel
• NATO’s projected capacity: 851,350 personnel
• United States’ projected capacity: 1,328,000 personnel

27. Combined Manpower

• Russia’s projected capacity: 810,000 personnel
• NATO’s projected capacity: 1,506,750 personnel
• United States’ projected capacity: 2,127,500 personnel

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